Will Chelsea's model ever work?

Will Chelsea's model ever work?

It is time to genuinely ask if Chelsea will ever become a force in the Premier League again.

After another false dawn, where they temporarily joined Liverpool and Arsenal in the title race, the Blues appear to be back to the level we have become accustomed to seeing them in recent years. 

What happened to the old Chelsea we used to know?

Well, it got sold, and a new Chelsea, led by American businessman Todd Boehly, is now in charge of the London club. 

Since Boehly's arrival, nothing has really been the same at Stamford Bridge. 

Roman Abramovic introduced a new system to the Premier League when he bought Chelsea in the mid-2010s. The Russian businessman brought money with him and showed the world that money can indeed bring success. 

He spent loads of money and fired loads of managers when he was Chelsea owner, and it brought trophies to the Stamford Bridge. 

However, Chelsea's new leadership has taken Abramovic's game to another level, adding new parts to the playbook. 

Since the new owners arrived, the Blues have spent over £1.2 billion on new players. They signed 40 players during that period while moving on or releasing 38 more. 

Boehly and co. have also ripped up football's conventions on shorter-term contracts (in the three- to five-year range); they have signed many of these players to seven-, eight- or even nine-year deals. 

Four different permanent managers have also been hired/fired in that period, yet with no trophy to show for it. 

Unless you are a very optimistic Chelsea fan, it is safe to admit that what is happening at Stamford Bridge is a mess. 

Incidentally, many fans are not optimistic, and a recent fan-led protest against the ownership has proved this. 

There is good reason to protest, as questions have to be asked about the club's short-term and long-term future.

Chelsea ticket buyers and fans demand to know what their club is doing and where the new ownership is taking them. Will the Chelsea model ever work?

What is Chelsea's model under Todd Boehly?

The first thing to know is, 'What is Chelsea's model now?' 

While this is a straightforward question, the answer is far from straightforward because no one knows the club's strategy, at least from the outside. 

Summarily, Chelsea's idea under the new Boehly and Eghbali-led ownership group is to sign younger players before they become stars, saving the club money but hedging their bets across multiple youngsters in the hope some become superstars. 

The long contracts allow Chelsea to keep their wage bill down and spread the transfer cost over a long period. 

So when contract renewal talks come up, it gives them increased leverage - as players could get left with take-it-or-leave-it offers, with the club able to extend negotiations over a longer period.

As we mentioned above, Chelsea have signed 40 players since Boehly & Co. took over the club in mid-2022. A good number of these players are youngsters who have been signed for the ‘future’. 

Others are expensive buys, bought for immediate impact, with Chelsea giving them ridiculously long contracts never before seen.  

Those inside claim to know what they are doing. But from the outside, it is a mishmash.

"It is not a mess like it looks from outside, absolutely not," Maresca said in August last year.

The Chelsea fans are yet to be convinced seven months later.

Unsustainable strategy

While their model makes business sense, it is unlikely to work out or yield results now or in the future.  

This is because it creates loads of problems that defeat its purpose.  

In the summer, manager Enzo Maresca, who admittedly has done a fairly good job in steadying the ship at Stamford Bridge due to some bold decisions, was left with the problem of dealing with an oversized squad. 

The Blues had 42 first-team players listed on the club website last August, leading to the club putting at least 11 senior players up for loan or for sale in what was known as the 'bomb squad'. 

Raheem Sterling, the club's first signing under Boehly, was also affected, as were some of the club's most expensive buys in the past. 

Although they managed to move on some of those players, by the close of the summer transfer window, Chelsea had more players than they needed. 

Premier League squads are limited to 25 players. By the end of the transfer deadline last summer, Chelsea had 30 footballers who would expect to be part of the first team and another handful in the U21s who are pushing for involvement.

As it stands, it will take a while before this problem of an over-bloated squad is solved. It will require Chelsea to stop signing players and sell many of the players they don't need. 

Disorganised strategy

However, it doesn't appear Chelsea is willing to stop signing players. They have already mapped out a plan to sign at least six first-team players in the summer and have an agreement in place to sign Brazilian fullback Denner Evangelista for €15m. 

€15m is a lot of money for a 17-year-old who will likely not play for Chelsea for the next three years. The owners seem to know better, though. 

But common sense suggests that €15m for an unknown player would have been a good investment if Chelsea had their squad ready to compete. 

However, the current squad is still undercooked in defence and attack. 

It is criminal that Chelsea have spent close to £1.5 billion in the last three years and still doesn't have a world-class goalkeeper or striker. This simply shows that the Clearlake Capital and Todd Boehly model, even if it has 'potential', is poorly thought out and highly disorganised. 

For example, of the nine players Chelsea signed in that first transfer window under Boehly/Clearlake–Raheem Sterling, Slonina, Kalidou Koulibaly, Carney Chukwuemeka, Marc Cucurella, Cesare Casadei, Wesley Fofana, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Denis Zakaria (on loan)—only two are still part of the first-team squad, four more are out on loan, and the remaining three have departed.

Who is doing the thinking at Stamford Bridge?

Repeating mistakes 

Some apologists of the model claim that Boehly and co. made a mistake in their first days at the club by signing these players and have learnt from their mistakes. 

However, assuming they have learnt, how do you explain the Joao Felix situation?

Signed for £45m from Atletico Madrid the latest summer, the Portuguese started just nine games (mainly in the cups) for Chelsea. He was shipped out on loan to AC Milan six months after an underwhelming campaign. 

To go a bit further, Chelsea currently has no fewer than eight goalkeepers on their books: Robert Sánchez, Filip Jørgensen, Marcus Bettinelli, Lucas Bergstrom, Gaga Slonina, Eddie Beach, Djordje Petrovic, and Kepa Arrizabalaga. The latter four were loaned out, but the club still signed a ninth, Mike Penders, who will join from Genk next summer.

Eight goalkeepers on their books, still Chelsea have no solid NO. 1 and is making plans to sign a goalkeeper in the summer. 

Chelsea rivals can take advantage 

While Chelsea owners can convince themselves that their model will work, other football clubs are soon realising how they can take advantage of the Blues approach.

A prime example is Raheem Sterling's loan move to Arsenal. The Gunners did not need the player in the summer, having completed their business before deadline day. 

However, Chelsea were desperate for the Englishman to leave and had to broker a deal with Mikel Arteta's side to shed some of the weight from the player's wages. 

No clubs were willing to match Sterling's £325,000-a-week salary, and the 29-year-old was not willing to move to Saudi Arabia. 

As a result, Chelsea was forced to cover his salary, with Arsenal paying nothing for the deal. Even though Sterling took a pay cut to move to the Emirates, Chelsea had to pay him £10m to play for Arsenal. Incredible! 

On a positive note, Chelsea may have gotten fairer deals from Carney Chukwuemeka and Felix's loan departure. However, should both players fail to shine in their temporary homes, the club will be forced to put them up for sale in the summer at a reduced price. 

Although Chelsea has recouped over £400m from player sales, the more failed signings they have, and the more failed loan deals they see, the harder it will be for them to recoup any money from their sales.

Increased player power 

According to data from Transfermarkt, Chelsea players have a combined 191 years left on their contracts. 

The Blues are quickly realising that most of the players they have signed are not good enough to take them where they want to be–to challenge for the Premier League and Champions League. 

But having these youngsters on long, lucrative deals gives them bargaining power. It means that even if they turn out badly, they will be the ones deciding the conditions of their departure. 

There is a high chance that over the next few years, Chelsea will be pushing players out the door and recouping nothing like the amount they paid for them.

Long term vs Short term 

Assuming Chelsea's model will somehow work long-term, how will the club fare in the interim? 

The simple truth is Chelsea has spent a lot and not won a trophy since the takeover.

Since Todd Boehly arrived, they have sacked three permanent managers, and though they have given Enzo Maresca the keys to the rebuild, they may end up with nothing to show for it. 

The Italian has improved some of the players he inherited. But the Conference League is his only chance at winning a trophy this season, as he has crashed out of each of the domestic cups.

He is likely to secure a top-four finish for Chelsea for the first time in three seasons. Doing so will mean progress. But for a club that has spent more money on transfers in three years than Everton has spent since their inception, a top-four finish is below the barest minimum.